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Ideological divide deepens in Venezuela

EL CENTRAL by EL CENTRAL
August 15, 2024
in Español, Featured, Opinion, World
Reading Time: 12 mins read
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  • Reprinted from Michigan News
  • Translated by Juan Ochoa
  • August 15, 2024
Español Abajo

ANN ARBOR—Venezuela stands at a pivotal point after its recent presidential election, where Nicolás Maduro secured his position amid significant economic and social turmoil. This election highlighted a profound ideological rift within the nation, beyond just the candidates themselves.

Maduro’s ongoing leadership will have significant consequences for Venezuela’s internal stability and its relationships on the global stage, especially with key players like the United States and neighboring countries in Latin America.

Edgar Franco-Vivanco is an assistant professor of political science at the University of Michigan. His work encompasses Latin American politics, historical political economy, criminal violence and indigenous politics.

What is the significance of the recent win for Venezuela with Maduro?

Venezuela is, by any metric, an authoritarian regime. Nicolás Maduro has been in power for over a decade and has now been reelected for a third term in a highly questionable election, to say the least. Over the past years, his regime has been limiting political opposition and various rights for Venezuelans. Unlike his predecessor, Hugo Chávez, Maduro lacks charisma and the advantage of stable income from high oil prices. This is one of the reasons why his regime has increasingly relied on repression to maintain power. As a result, many Venezuelans have fled the country, causing one of the largest diasporas in the region.

This third reelection is key for Venezuela because Maduro is seeking to consolidate his mandate and eliminate the opposition, which surprisingly remains very vibrant in the country. Before the election, the opposition hoped that the results would be so overwhelmingly favorable to them that Maduro would have to concede. Although it is impossible to know the true result of the election due to the lack of transparency in the electoral system, there are many indications that the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, won the election. However, the problem is that the elections were not transparent nor fair by any account.

What social movements or changes might arise as a result?

 We have already seen several protests in response to the results. Opposition supporters are frustrated and angry, believing this was one of their best chances to defeat the regime. Remember that for this election, many opposition parties came together in an unprecedented alliance. A very likely outcome is that many of those opposition leaders and supporters will leave Venezuela for good after witnessing the failure of their best chance to defeat Maduro and the Chavismo.

The response of the regime is not surprising either. Maduro holds control of the army, the police, the intelligence services, paramilitary groups and the judiciary, and they will use repression and violence to contain the protests. The question here is how long the protests can withstand this political repression. Unfortunately, we have already seen violence in the streets of Venezuela. The regime has also responded with a wave of arrests to intimidate political leaders and activists. More recently, Maduro blocked the usage of the X platform.The degree of restraint in this violence will likely depend on international pressure.

There is another element at play: the continuing support of the armed forces. So far the armed forces have supported Maduro almost unconditionally. This is not surprising since the regime has been built around providing benefits to military leaders. Yet, they can turn against him under some circumstances, particularly if they are given amnesty in a transitional period.

What implications might this have for Venezuela’s relationships with neighboring countries and major global powers?

So far, very few countries have recognized the validity of this election. Those that have primarily included Maduro’s main allies, such as Russia and China. This reflects the Maduro regime’s shift towards these global powers in recent years. The support of these countries is crucial for the political and economic survival of his regime.

Most democratic countries have cast doubts on the integrity of the electoral process. Among them, the United States is a key player. The US has already recognized González as the winner of the election. In the past, this country has implemented a series of sanctions against the Venezuelan economy in hopes of weakening Maduro’s regime. However, these sanctions have also had negative consequences on the general population, many of whom are struggling to make ends meet. As a result, many have decided to leave the country. This illustrates the difficulty of creating a strategy that punishes the regime without causing negative spillovers. Perhaps a potential route would be to implement more targeted sanctions against Maduro, his family and his inner circle.

In the region, Gabriel Boric, the left-leaning president of Chile, has already questioned the elections. Other Latin American countries, particularly Brazil, Mexico and Colombia, all led by leftist leaders, could play a major role if they choose not to recognize Maduro’s victory. Moreover, the leaders of these countries could become crucial intermediaries between Maduro’s government and Western powers, who are generally distrusted by the Latin American left. Yet, they have been reluctant to choose sides. All governments have highlighted that they want to see a transparent recounting of the votes before claiming a winner. However, it is unclear that Maduro will accept this. The Mexican president, AMLO, has been particularly elusive and it’s unclear he will make a move without the leadership of Brazil.

How does this victory compare to previous political events in Venezuela?

Perhaps the main difference is the scale of the potential fraud and the repression of the opposition. The principal opposition leader, María Corina Machado, was banned from running as a candidate, leading to Edmundo González stepping in as a proxy candidate. Maduro’s regime was nervous about the outcome of this election and the prospects of losing power. As a result, we have seen an escalation in political violence. Another significant difference in this election is the degree of organization within the opposition. To counter the regime’s opacity, they have collected paper tallies and their own statistics to prove their victory. However, the pressure from below, coming from the streets, needs to be matched with pressure from above.

Opposition leaders are being arrested in Venezuela. Do you know where they are being taken and what their treatment is like?

Authoritarian regimes are, by definition, opaque about their treatment of political prisoners. This opacity is an intimidation tactic designed to weaken the opposition. Reliable information is hard to obtain and verify, especially as social media has been increasingly targeted. Over the past decade, the regime has used prisons such as El Helicoide to detain political leaders. There is evidence of numerous human rights violations in these prisons, including torture and extrajudicial killings. The protesters currently being arrested are likely being taken to various prisons around the country, many of which are already overcrowded and controlled by powerful gangs. Unfortunately, the regime continues to resort to extrajudicial arrests, mistreatment, and even torture.

La división ideológica se profundiza en Venezuela

ANN ARBOR—Venezuela se encuentra en un punto crucial tras su reciente elección presidencial, en la que Nicolás Maduro aseguró su posición en medio de una significativa agitación económica y social. Esta elección destacó una profunda brecha ideológica dentro de la nación, más allá de los propios candidatos.

El liderazgo continuo de Maduro tendrá consecuencias significativas para la estabilidad interna de Venezuela y sus relaciones en el escenario global, especialmente con países clave como Estados Unidos y los países vecinos en América Latina.

Edgar Franco-Vivanco es profesor asistente de ciencia política en la Universidad de Michigan. Su trabajo abarca la política latinoamericana, la economía política histórica, la violencia criminal y la política indígena.

¿Cuál es el significado de la reciente victoria de Maduro para Venezuela?

Venezuela es, según cualquier métrica, un régimen autoritario. Nicolás Maduro ha estado en el poder por más de una década y ha sido reelegido para un tercer mandato en una elección cuestionable, por decir lo menos. En los últimos años, su régimen ha estado limitando la oposición política y varios derechos de los venezolanos.A diferencia de su predecesor, Hugo Chávez, Maduro carece de carisma y de la ventaja de ingresos estables provenientes del petróleo. Esta es una de las razones por las que su régimen ha recurrido cada vez más a la represión para mantener el poder. Como resultado, muchos venezolanos han huido del país, causando una de las mayores diásporas en la región.

Esta tercera reelección es clave para Venezuela porque Maduro busca consolidar su mandato y eliminar a la oposición, que sorprendentemente sigue siendo muy vibrante en el país. Antes de la elección, la oposición esperaba que los resultados fueran favorables para ellos que Maduro no tendría más remedio que conceder. Aunque es imposible conocer el verdadero resultado de la elección debido a la falta de transparencia en el sistema electoral, hay muchas indicaciones de que el candidato de la oposición, Edmundo González, ganó la elección. Sin embargo, el problema es que las elecciones no fueron transparentes ni justas de ninguna manera.

¿Qué movimientos o cambios sociales podrían surgir como resultado?

Ya hemos visto varias protestas en respuesta a los resultados. Los partidarios de la oposición están frustrados y enfadados, creyendo que esta era una de sus mejores oportunidades para derrotar al régimen. Recuerden que para esta elección, muchos partidos de la oposición se unieron en una alianza sin precedentes. Un resultado muy probable es que muchos de esos líderes y partidarios de la oposición abandonen Venezuela para siempre después de presenciar el fracaso de su mejor oportunidad para derrotar a Maduro y al chavismo.

La respuesta del régimen no sorprende. Maduro controla el ejército, la policía, los servicios de inteligencia, los grupos paramilitares y el poder judicial, y utilizarán la represión y la violencia para contener las protestas. La pregunta aquí es cuánto tiempo pueden soportar las protestas esta represión política. Desafortunadamente, ya hemos visto violencia en las calles de Venezuela. El régimen también ha respondido con una ola de arrestos para intimidar a líderes políticos y activistas. Más recientemente, Maduro bloqueó el uso de la plataforma X. El grado de moderación en esta violencia probablemente dependerá de la presión internacional.

Hay otro elemento en juego: el apoyo continuo de las fuerzas armadas. Hasta ahora, las fuerzas armadas han apoyado a Maduro casi incondicionalmente. Esto no es sorprendente, ya que el régimen se ha construido en torno a proporcionar beneficios a los líderes militares. Sin embargo, pueden volverse en su contra bajo ciertas circunstancias, particularmente si se les otorga amnistía en un período de transición.

¿Qué implicaciones podría tener esto para las relaciones de Venezuela con países vecinos y las principales potencias mundiales?

Hasta ahora, muy pocos países han reconocido la validez de esta elección. Los que lo han hecho incluyen a los principales aliados de Maduro, como Rusia y China. Esto refleja el giro del régimen de Maduro hacia estas potencias globales en los últimos años. El apoyo de estos países es crucial para la supervivencia política y económica de su régimen. La mayoría de los países democráticos han puesto en duda la integridad del proceso electoral. Entre ellos, Estados Unidos, un actor clave. Estados Unidos ya ha reconocido a González como el ganador de las elecciones. En el pasado, este país ha implementado una serie de sanciones contra la economía venezolana con la esperanza de debilitar el régimen de Maduro. Sin embargo, estas sanciones también han tenido consecuencias negativas para la población en general, muchos de los cuales están batallando para salir adelante económicamente.

Como resultado, muchos han decidido abandonar el país. Esto ilustra la dificultad de crear una estrategia que castigue al régimen sin causar efectos negativos secundarios. Tal vez una ruta potencial sería implementar sanciones más específicas contra Maduro, su familia y su círculo cercano. En la región, Gabriel Boric, el presidente de izquierda en Chile, ya ha cuestionado las elecciones. Otros países de América Latina, en particular Brasil, México y Colombia, todos liderados por líderes de izquierda, podrían desempeñar un papel importante si deciden no reconocer la victoria de Maduro.

Además, los líderes de estos países podrían convertirse en intermediarios cruciales entre el gobierno de Maduro y las potencias occidentales, que generalmente son desconocidas por la izquierda latinoamericana. Sin embargo, han resistido a tomar partido. Todos los gobiernos han destacado que quieren ver un recuento transparente de los votos antes de proclamar a un ganador. No obstante, no está claro si Maduro aceptará esto. El presidente mexicano, AMLO, ha sido particularmente evasivo y no está claro si hará un movimiento sin el liderazgo de Brasil.

¿Cómo se compara esta victoria con eventos políticos anteriores en Venezuela?

Tal vez la principal diferencia es la escala del potencial fraude y la represión de la oposición. La principal líder de la oposición, María Corina Machado, fue inhabilitada para postularse como candidata, lo que llevó a Edmundo González a asumir la candidatura como su sustituto. El régimen de Maduro estaba nervioso por el resultado de esta elección y las posibilidades de perder el poder.

Como resultado, hemos visto una escalada en la violencia política. Otra diferencia significativa en esta elección es el grado de organización dentro de la oposición. Para contrarrestar la opacidad del régimen, han recopilado boletas y sus propias estadísticas para probar su victoria. Sin embargo, la presión desde abajo, que viene de la población, necesita ser igualada con la presión de arriba.

Los líderes de la oposición están siendo arrestados en Venezuela. ¿Dónde están siendo llevados y cómo es su tratamiento?

Los regímenes autoritarios son, por definición, opacos en cuanto a su tratamiento de los presos políticos. Esta opacidad es una táctica de intimidación diseñada para debilitar a la oposición. La información confiable es difícil de obtener y verificar, especialmente ya que las redes sociales han sido cada vez más atacadas. Durante la última década, el régimen ha utilizado prisiones como El Helicoide para detener a líderes políticos. Hay evidencia de numerosas violaciones a los derechos humanos en estas prisiones, incluyendo tortura y ejecuciones extrajudiciales. Los manifestantes que están siendo arrestados actualmente probablemente están siendo llevados a varias prisiones alrededor del país, muchas de las cuales ya están abarrotadas y controladas por poderosas pandillas. Desafortunadamente, el régimen continúa recurriendo a arrestos extrajudiciales, maltratos e incluso tortura.

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Ford Hispanic and Latino Network Beautifies Clark Park

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Portland Races by DCFC

Portland Races by DCFC

June 5, 2025
Panamá

Panamá

June 5, 2025
Movement Detroit 2025

Movement Detroit 2025

June 6, 2025
All racers pull into pit lane to wait as wreckage from a crash is cleared from the course so the final laps can be run.

Thrilling Finish to the 2025 Detroit Grand Prix!

June 5, 2025

Recent News

Portland Races by DCFC

Portland Races by DCFC

June 5, 2025
Panamá

Panamá

June 5, 2025
Movement Detroit 2025

Movement Detroit 2025

June 6, 2025
All racers pull into pit lane to wait as wreckage from a crash is cleared from the course so the final laps can be run.

Thrilling Finish to the 2025 Detroit Grand Prix!

June 5, 2025
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