Friday, December 5th at noon FIFA will start the draw for the group phase of the 2026 World Cup. The three host nations already know the dates and locations for their three group matches. Soon they and the thirty-nine other qualified countries will find out their opponents. FIFA will assign the groups on Friday afternoon and then announce the full match schedule shortly after midday on Saturday. Venues and kick-off times will have to be set up in a way that suits television in a number of time zones around the world.
Controversy is never far away, though. It has started even before the draw with Iran announcing a boycott of the festivities. The Asian power has protested the way the United States has denied travel visas to members of their official delegation, including federation president Mehdi Taj who is a high-ranking figure in the Asian Football Confederation. The denials relate to President Trump’s current policy regarding certain countries. FIFA has made no comment about the row.
Political issues aside, the draw will afford most nations a first look at who they will meet and the path to the World Cup final. With forty-two of the forty-eight countries qualified, there are still six spots to be determined in the March playoffs. Four more teams will come from Europe and two more will come through the FIFA Play-Offs hosted by Mexico. Each of the qualified teams has been assigned to one of four pots with the six open playoff spots in pot 4. Here are the four pots:
Pot 1: Canada, Mexico, USA, Spain, Argentina, France, England, Brazil, Portugal, Netherlands, Belgium, Germany
Pot 2: Croatia, Morocco, Colombia, Uruguay, Switzerland, Japan, Senegal, IR Iran, Korea Republic, Ecuador, Austria, Australia
Pot 3: Norway, Panama, Egypt, Algeria, Scotland, Paraguay, Tunisia, Côte d’Ivoire, Uzbekistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, South Africa
Pot 4: Jordan, Cabo Verde, Ghana, Curaçao, Haiti, New Zealand, European Play-Off A, B, C and D, FIFA Play-Off Tournament 1 and 2
No country can draw a team from its own confederation, except that four of the groups will have two European teams. That means the three hosts will not be able to draw a team from the FIFA Play-Off Tournament, because Jamaica and Suriname will be among the six countries vying for final two places. In addition, for the elimination rounds, FIFA will employ a tennis-like balancing of the bracket. That will put Spain and Argentina in opposite halves and will also separate England and France. They are the four highest ranking qualified countries.
Even separating the four highest ranked teams won’t prevent the usual allocation of a “group of death” and a few that seem too easy on paper. What American, Canadian, or Mexican would turn down a group that had Australia from Pot 2, South Africa from Pot 3, and New Zealand from Pot 4? It’s a possibility, however unlikely. Of course, the opposite scenario of drawing Morocco, Norway, and a European playoff team like Italy is also possible.
Beyond the favored teams, including every previous champion except Italy, there are a number of teams who will make things difficult for anyone. None of the big teams will fancy the free-scoring Norwegians led by world class striker Erling Haaland and the creativity of Martin Odegaard in midfield. Given Morocco’s run to the semifinals in Qatar, they have proved they are worthy of respect, too. South American teams like Colombia and Ecuador will also be tough. They are big physical teams accustomed to the heat and humidity that will be omnipresent across the host countries.
First time qualifiers may just be happy to make up the numbers of an expanded World Cup, but Cabo Verde, Jordan, Curacao, Uzbekistan will be looking to make their mark. They edged past more fancied nations to qualify without going through additional playoffs. They and their supporters will be thrilled no matter who they draw. Depending on the playoff results, there could even be more first time qualifiers.
As for supporters, Scotland has qualified for the first time since 1998. They exited that World Cup in the group phase, but the Tartan Army’s enthusiasm has never diminished. Any city welcoming the Scots will be in for a good time. Norway also returns for the first time since 1998. While they celebrate their return, Italy has to win two games or they will miss their third World Cup in a row, a stunning proposition for the four-time winners.
The buildup to next summer’s tournament will be officially underway once the draw is complete and the match schedule released. That will give the players, coaches, and staffs a start on preparations. For the fans, there will be another round of lotteries to offer tickets for sale. FIFA has elected a “dynamic pricing” model for this World Cup, guaranteed to drive ticket prices to all-time highs. Even so, they have reported ticket requests from over 200 countries. The stadiums will certainly be full, setting another attendance record to eclipse the one set in 1994 when the USA last hosted. There will be a massive television audience due to the expansion to forty-eight teams. This is going to be a massive money-maker for FIFA and any company with exclusive rights to sell merchandise. If the spectacle on the field is as spectacular as the sums of money involved, we will be in for a special treat.
